Udo Gollub at Messe Berlin- (University of the Singularity Conference)
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper sold in the world. Over the course of a few years, her business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak is going to happen to a lot of industries over the next 10 years – and most people don't see it coming. Could you imagine in 1998 that 3 years later you would never again record photos on paper film?
However, digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones were only 10,000 pixels, but they followed Moore's Law. As with all exponential technologies, they were disappointing for a long time, until they became vastly superior and dominant in just a few years. The same will happen now with artificial intelligence, health, autonomous and electric vehicles, with education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the fourth Industrial Revolution!
The software will wreck most traditional activities in the next 5-10 years.
UBER is just a software tool, they are not car owners and they are now the biggest taxi company in the world. AIRBNB is the largest hotel company in the world, although they are not owners.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers are becoming exponentially better at understanding the world. This year, a computer defeated the best GO player in the world, 10 years ahead of schedule. In the United States, young lawyers can no longer get jobs. With IBM's WATSON, you can get legal advice (for now on more or less basic matters) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared to 70% accuracy when done by humans. Therefore, if you are studying law, STOP immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
WATSON is already helping nurses diagnose cancer, four times more accurately than human nurses. FACEBOOK now incorporates pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become smarter than humans.
Autonomous vehicles: in 2018 the first automatically driven vehicles will appear to the public. Around 2020, the entire auto industry will begin to be demolished. You will no longer want to own a car. Our children will never need a driver's license or own a car. This will change cities as we will need 90-95 % less cars for this. We will be able to transform parking areas into parks. About 1,200,000 people die each year in car accidents around the world. We now have an accident every 100,000 km, but with self-driving vehicles this will drop to an accident every 10,000,000 km. This will save over 1,000,000 lives each year.
Most car companies could go bankrupt. Traditional car companies adopt the evolutionary tactic and build better cars, while technology companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will adopt the revolutionary tactic and build a computer on wheels. I've talked to a bunch of engineers at Volkswagen and Audi: they're completely terrified of TESLA.
Insurance companies will have huge problems because, without accidents, insurance will become 100 times cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
The real estate business will change. Because they can work while on the move, people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become dominant by 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run electrically. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: solar energy has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but only now can V. feel the impact. Last year, more solar installations were installed than fossils. The price of solar energy will drop such that all coal miners will cease operations around 2025.
With cheap electricity we will have abundant and cheap water. Desalination now consumes only 2 kilowatt hours per cubic meter. We don't have a water shortage in most places, we just have a shortage of drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if everyone has as much clean water as they want, at almost no cost.
Health: The price of Tricorder X will be announced this year. We will have companies that will build a medical device (called a Tricorder in the Star Trek series) that works with your phone, scanning your retina, testing your blood sample, and analyzing your breath (breath meter). He then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify virtually any disease. It will be so cheap that in a few years every person on this planet will have access to world-class medicine practically for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer has dropped from US$ 18,000 to US$ 400 in 10 years. In this same range, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe factories started printing 3D shoes. Aircraft spare parts are already 3D printed at remote airports. The Space Station now has a 3D printer that eliminates the need to have a lot of replacement parts as was previously required. Later this year, new smartphones will be able to scan in 3D. You can then scan your foot and print perfect shoes at home. In China, they have 3D printed an entire 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything produced will be printed in 3D.
Business Opportunities: If you are thinking of a niche you would like to enter, ask yourself:
"WILL WE HAVE THIS IN THE FUTURE?" and if the answer is YES, how can you make this happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, FORGET the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is bound to fail in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it's not clear whether there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.
Agriculture: There will be a US$ 100.00 farm robot in the future. 3rd world farmers will be able to become managers of their land instead of working on them every day. AEROPONIA will need much less water. The first “in vitro” produced calf is now available and will become cheaper than the natural cow calf around 2018. Currently, about 30% of all farmable surfaces are occupied by cows. Imagine if such spaces were allowed to be used in this way. There are many current initiatives to bring insect protein to market soon. They provide more protein than meat. It should be labeled an ALTERNATIVE PROTEIN SOURCE. (because many people still reject ideas of eating insects).
There is an application called “moodies” which is already able to tell what mood you are in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell if you are lying by your facial expressions. Imagine a political debate where they are showing when people are telling the truth and when they are not.
BITCOIN (virtual money) could become dominant this year and could even become standard reserve currency.
Longevity: Currently, life expectancy increases about 3 months a year. Four years ago, life expectancy used to be 79 years and is now 80 years. The increase itself is also increasing and around 2036 there will be an increase of more than a year per year. So we can all live long, long lives, possibly well over 100 years.
Education: Cheaper smartphones are already costing US$ 10.00 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will have a smartphone. This means that everyone has the same access to world-class education.
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